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American Journal of Physiology-Endocrinology and Metabolism

American Physiological Society

Preprints posted in the last 7 days, ranked by how well they match American Journal of Physiology-Endocrinology and Metabolism's content profile, based on 34 papers previously published here. The average preprint has a 0.02% match score for this journal, so anything above that is already an above-average fit.

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Acute effect of high-intensity interval training on fetal blood flow distribution

Skarstad, H. M. S.; Skrede, S.; La Haganes, K.; Ashby, E. R.; Sujan, M. A. J.; Deibele, K. U.; Morch, H.; Haugen, G. N.; Salvesen, K. A.; Moholdt, T.

2026-05-28 sports medicine 10.64898/2026.05.27.26354197 medRxiv
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Objectives To examine the acute effects of a single bout of high-intensity interval training (HIIT) on fetal blood flow distribution during the third trimester of pregnancy. Methods Thirty-four healthy pregnant participants (mean age 31.6 years, standard deviation (SD) 4.1; gestational week 33.8 (SD 0.4) completed eight 30-second high-intensity cycling work-bouts interspersed with 2-minute rest periods. Fetal heart rate (FHR), maternal blood pressure, and Doppler-derived blood flow indices in the middle cerebral artery, umbilical artery and vein, and ductus venosus were assessed before and after exercise. We estimated fetal liver blood flow and the ratio of umbilical vein flow to ductus venosus. Maternal heart rate (HR) and FHR were recorded throughout exercise. Paired t-tests compared pre- and post-exercise values. Results No significant changes were observed in fetal blood flow indices or distribution following exercise. Average maternal HR and FHR during the work-bouts were 158 bpm (SD 16) and 152 bpm (SD 12), respectively. Following HIIT, maternal systolic blood pressure increased by 5 mmHg (95% CI 1 to 8, p=.014), maternal HR by 22 bpm (95% CI 15 to 28, p<.001), and FHR by 13 bpm (95% CI 10 to 17, p<.001). We recorded 16 instances of FHR above normal range during HIIT. Conclusion A single HIIT session in late pregnancy increased maternal blood pressure and HR and transiently elevated FHR but did not affect fetal blood flow indices or distribution. Brief episodes of fetal tachycardia were observed but appeared to be clinically insignificant. Future research should investigate the effects of repeated HIIT exposure during pregnancy.

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Resting energy expenditure and thermic effect of a high-fat meal in the early follicular and mid-luteal phases of the menstrual cycle: a crossover trial protocol

Goulet, N.; Lyndon, S.; Beauregard, N.; McInnis, K.; Mauger, J.-F.; Doucet, E.; Imbeault, P.

2026-05-30 nutrition 10.64898/2026.05.25.26354032 medRxiv
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Introduction: Menstrual cycle phase has been proposed as a source of intra-individual variability in resting energy expenditure and the thermic effect of food in premenopausal females, yet studies examining the thermic effect of food across menstrual cycle phases report conflicting findings. Methods: This protocol describes a secondary analysis of prespecified outcomes from a non-randomized, two-period crossover trial primarily designed to assess postprandial plasma triglyceride concentrations across menstrual cycle phases (ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT07459465) in 12 premenopausal females aged 18-30 years, free of chronic disease and hormonal contraceptive use, recruited in Ottawa, Canada. Participants complete two experimental sessions: one in the early follicular phase and one in the mid-luteal phase, each involving consumption of a high-fat meal. Eleven secondary outcomes will be reported: fasting resting energy expenditure, thermic effect of food, respiratory exchange ratio, carbohydrate oxidation rate, lipid oxidation rate, desire to eat, hunger, fullness, prospective food consumption, serum beta-estradiol, and serum progesterone. Masked outcome analyses are performed using linear mixed-effects models. Results: Recruitment began on 26 March 2026; results will be reported in the Stage 2 manuscript. Discussion: Findings from this trial may help clarify whether menstrual cycle phase constitutes a meaningful source of intra-individual variability in energy metabolism, with implications for the design of metabolic research in premenopausal females.

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Dried blood spot proteomics as a diagnostic framework for citrin deficiency

Totsune, E.; Nakajima, D.; Konno, R.; Mikami-Saito, Y.; Arai-Ichinoi, N.; Nishida, H.; Yagi, H.; Ishige, T.; Suzuki, H.; Shirota, M.; Takayama, J.; Takano-Asai, C.; Shimura, M.; Sasai, H.; Lee, T.; Kido, J.; Nakajima, Y.; Kobayashi, H.; Kikuchi, A.; Numakura, C.; Hamazaki, T.; Oishi, K.; Nakamura, K.; Kawashima, Y.; Ohara, O.; Wada, Y.

2026-05-28 genetic and genomic medicine 10.64898/2026.05.26.26354012 medRxiv
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Background: Citrin deficiency, caused by biallelic pathogenic variants in SLC25A13, must be identified early to prevent serious complications such as hyperammonemia and liver failure. However, clinical diagnosis is often delayed due to its nonspecific presentation and limited sensitivity of amino acid-based newborn screening methods. Although genome-based evaluations are being investigated to address these issues, concerns about their cost, turnaround time, variant interpretation ability, and data handling highlight the need for a more practical yet reliable alternative. We investigated the feasibility of applying proteomic approach on dried blood spots (DBS), which are routinely used in newborn screening. Methods: We performed untargeted liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry to analyze the proteome of DBS using a previously developed "non-targeted analysis of non-specifically DBS-absorbed proteins" (NANDA) workflow. SLC25A13 protein abundance was quantified in individuals with biallelic loss-of-function mutations, compound loss-of-function/missense mutations, and heterozygous carriers; this was also evaluated in healthy and diseased controls representing relevant differential diagnoses. To leverage proteomic information, we derived a multivariate proteomic signature using feature selection and evaluated its performance with leave-one-out cross-validation. Biological relevance was assessed by enrichment analysis, and complementary transcriptomics was performed using RNA sequencing. Results: A total of 7,474 proteins, including SLC25A13, were consistently detected in DBS. SLC25A13 was undetectable in individuals with biallelic loss-of-function mutations. However, individuals with compound loss-of-function/missense genotypes showed reduced but measurable SLC25A13 levels, comparable to those observed in heterozygous carriers. In contrast, a compact 15-protein signature accurately identified individuals with compound loss-of-function/missense genotypes (AUC, 0.99; sensitivity, 1.00; specificity, 0.95). The signature was enriched for Ca2+-response, and transcriptomics showed downregulation of genes related to multimodal ion channels in affected individuals compared to controls. Conclusions: DBS-based proteomic profiling may assist in the diagnosis of citrin deficiency through SLC25A13-quantification and a biologically plausible multivariate signature. More broadly, this strategy offers a promising new diagnostic layer for protein disorders, providing a proteomic readout in a clinically practical DBS format with potential utility for future diagnostic and screening applications.

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One-year within-trial and lifetime-horizon modeled health economic evaluation of the risk-stratified Prediabetes Lifestyle Intervention Study (PLIS) for prediabetes remission in Germany

Mohebbi, D.; Vomhof, M.; Montalbo, J.; Winkels, A. K.; Gontscharuk, V.; Chernyak, N.; Dintsios, C.-M.; Kairies-Schwarz, N.; Stark, R.; Emmert-Fees, K. M. F.; Fan, M.; Schick, R.; Schürmann, A.; Bornstein, S.; Heni, M.; Stefan, N.; Jumpertz von Schwartzenberg, R.; Blüher, M.; Lechner, A.; Clavel, J.; Kopf, S.; Szendrödi, J.; Roden, M.; Wagner, R.; Fritsche, A.; Birkenfeld, A. L.; Icks, A.

2026-05-26 health economics 10.64898/2026.05.22.26353768 medRxiv
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Background Lifestyle interventions can increase the probability of remission of prediabetes to normal glucose tolerance, but their economic value remains unclear. We assessed the within-trial and lifetime-horizon modeled cost-effectiveness of intensive and conventional lifestyle interventions in risk-stratified participants with prediabetes. Methods A health economic evaluation was conducted alongside the 12-month multicenter PLIS trial (n=1,105). High-risk participants were randomized to intensive (HR-INT) or conventional (HR-CONV); low-risk participants to conventional lifestyle intervention (LR-CONV) or control (only short single consultation; LR-CTRL) with risk stratification based on insulin secretion, insulin sensitivity, and liver fat content. Within-trial analyses estimated incremental costs per additional remission to normoglycemia and per quality-adjusted life year (QALY). Lifetime cost-effectiveness was modelled using a four-state Markov Model. Findings At 12 months, HR-INT and LR-CONV increased remission compared with their respective comparators. The incremental cost per additional remission was {euro}7,081 (95% CI: dominated-47,277) for HR-INT and {euro}4,278 (1,312-11,793) for LR-CONV from a health insurance perspective. A willingness-to-pay of {euro}22,000 (HR-INT) and {euro}7,500 (LR-CONV) per additional remission corresponded to 90% probability of cost-effectiveness. Neither intervention was cost-effective in terms of QALYs gained within the 12-months period. Lifetime modelling suggested that both HR-INT and LR-CONV are not only cost-effective, but also cost-saving, relative to HR-CONV and LR-CTRL, respectively. Also in the probabilistic sensitivity analysis, most simulations indicated dominance (71.7% for HR and 88% for LR). Interpretation Based on short-term economic evaluation, the interventions assessed were cost-effective regarding additional participants with remission, not for incremental QALYs gained. Lifetime modelling suggests cost savings for both risk groups. Targeting populations with lifestyle interventions to achieve prediabetes remission seems to generate good value for money in the long term.

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Domain-based basal and ambulatory glycemic exposure metrics derived from continuous glucose monitoring: a real-world clinic-based study

Shinde, S. N.; Shinde, R. S.; Bhangaaley, S. Y.

2026-05-26 endocrinology 10.64898/2026.05.24.26353983 medRxiv
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Background: Consensus continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) metrics, including time in range (TIR), time above range (TAR), time below range (TBR), mean glucose, glucose management indicator, and glycemic variability, are essential for modern glucose assessment. However, these whole-day summaries do not explicitly partition nocturnal basal from daytime ambulatory glycemic burden. Objective: To develop and evaluate a complementary domain-based CGM framework that quantifies basal and daytime ambulatory glycemic exposure across oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT)-derived dysglycemia phenotypes. Methods: In this observational, clinic-based study, 253 individuals underwent OGTT with insulin measurement and CGM. Participants were classified using a prespecified OGTT-derived phenotyping algorithm, implemented through a deterministic rules-based web calculator, and collapsed into five groups: NoDM, Increased insulin resistance, Midzone Glycemia, Prediabetes, and Diabetes. CGM files were uniformly reprocessed by selecting the latest contiguous episode and retaining the most recent 15 calendar days with data. The 24-hour profile was partitioned into nocturnal basal (00:00 to <06:00) and daytime ambulatory (06:00 to <24:00) domains. Derived indices included Area of Basal Glycemia (ABG), Area of Prandial/Daytime Ambulatory Glycemia (APG), incremental ABG (iABG), incremental APG (iAPG), and exploratory deficit indices dABG and dAPG. Results: The final dataset contributed 3,647 analyzable CGM days. APG remained higher than ABG across all groups. Mean ABG/APG increased from 80.45/86.38 mg/dL in NoDM to 111.96/124.70 mg/dL in Diabetes. Mean iABG/iAPG increased from 5.65/6.60 to 34.12/38.91 mg/dL, whereas dABG/dAPG declined as dysglycemia worsened. Conclusions: The ABG/APG framework provides interpretable, domain-resolved CGM burden metrics that separate basal from daytime ambulatory exposure and distinguish total burden from above-threshold excess. These indices are proposed as adjunctive metrics to support dysglycemia phenotyping, early risk recognition, and treatment monitoring, but are not intended to replace established consensus CGM metrics or diagnostic criteria. External, prospective validation is required.

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Is it time for a paradigm shift? Tailored online video education instead of pretest genetic counseling facilitates high genetic test uptake and informed choice for adults seeking cardiovascular genetic testing

Rivers, B.; Murray, B.; Applegate, C. D.; Tichnell, C.; Gordon, C.; McClellan, R.; Brown, E.; Nunez, K.; Barth, A. S.; Taylor, C. O.; Yanek, L. R.; Day, J.; James, C. A.

2026-06-01 genetic and genomic medicine 10.64898/2026.05.28.26354394 medRxiv
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Background: Pretest genetic counseling (GC) is recommended in conjunction with genetic testing (GT) for cardiovascular (CV) indications, yet access to CVGC is limited leading to delayed GT. Posttest GC could increase GC and GT access but requires efficient pretest education that supports both informed GT decision-making and robust GT uptake. Methods: We developed four indication-tailored online CV genetics education videos and deployed them in a 3-arm randomized trial comparing pretest vs. posttest outpatient CVGC (RESEQUENCE-GC, NCT05422573). Participants were 1:1:1 randomized to pretest video education plus an optional (efficiency arm) or required (flipped arm) phone call with a genetic counselor and planned posttest CVGC or to standard pretest CVGC (SOC arm). Questionnaires administered at baseline and post-education included the CV Multidimensional Model of Informed Choice [MMIC] to quantify GT knowledge and informed GT choice. Results: 389/767 (50.7%) adults aged 18-80 (mean 51.2{+/-}14.9 years) scheduling a first CVGC appointment consented to RESEQUENCE-GC and completed the baseline questionnaire. Efficiency arm participants (video education + optional phone call) were most likely to complete pretest education (134, 97.4% efficiency; 107, 85.6% flipped; 111, 87.4% SOC, p=0.0012) and elect GT (131, 95.6% efficiency; 105, 84.0% flipped; 107, 84.2% SOC, p=0.0036). Few (4, 2.9%) efficiency arm participants requested an optional pretest phone call. Most flipped arm participants (90, 84.1%) had no post-video questions, consistent with the 97 second [IQR: 65s-145s] median call duration. CV genetics knowledge was high post-education (median 8 [IQR 7,8]/8 MMIC items correct). Only video-based pretest education was associated with a significant increase in knowledge (p<0.0001). Nearly all participants made an informed GT choice with no difference between intervention (95.6%) and SOC (90.4%) arms (p=0.074). Conclusions: Tailored, online video pretest education can enhance CV GT uptake, support informed GT decision-making, and be integrated into efficient pretest workflows, suggesting utility in scalable posttest CVGC.

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Evaluating the sensitivity of heart rate variability fractal correlation properties to training load variations: Implications for monitoring training readiness and durability

van Rassel, C. R.; Rummel, M.; MacInnis, M. J.

2026-05-30 sports medicine 10.64898/2026.05.27.26354281 medRxiv
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This study examined the utility of HRV detrended fluctuation analysis alpha-1 (DFA1) to assess readiness-to-train and exercise durability under varying acute training loads. Nineteen trained cyclists completed two 20-minute time-trials (TT) under rested and fatigued conditions. DFA1 was measured during a standardized warm-up (WU), 20-min TT, and standardized cool-down (CD). Power output (PO) and DFA1 responses were compared across conditions, and associations with performance and fitness (W/kg) were examined. DFA1 values declined with increasing WU and CD exercise intensity (p<0.001) and were significantly attenuated following the 20-min TT (p<0.001). While DFA1 profiles did not differ significantly between rested and fatigued conditions, lower pre-TT DFA1 was associated with reduced TT performance (p=0.022; r=0.55), suggesting relevance to training readiness. Additionally, an 18% decline in DFA1 between 10- and 20-min during the TT (p=0.031), and lower post-TT values at matched intensities were observed (p<0.001), indicating physiological perturbation from the 20-min TT. Fitter participants exhibited lower DFA1 values during the 20-min TT (p<0.001; r=-0.77), suggesting a greater capacity to sustain physiological stress. While DFA1 is responsive to exercise intensity and stress, offering potential to assess training readiness and durability, more robust fatigue protocols are needed to validate DFA1 as training load monitoring tool.

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Association of a polygenic risk score with coronary atherosclerotic burden in clinical CT angiograms

Hartmann, K.; Gannon, M.; Natarajan, P.; Greenland, P.; Biobank, P. M.; Levin, M.

2026-05-27 genetic and genomic medicine 10.64898/2026.05.26.26353801 medRxiv
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Background: Polygenic risk scores (PRS) for coronary artery disease (CAD) are associated with cardiovascular events, but the relationship between inherited risk and routinely reported coronary computed tomography angiography (CTA) findings has not been studied. Objectives: To evaluate associations between a genome-wide PRS for angiographic coronary disease burden and coronary CTA-derived measures of atherosclerotic severity in a real-world clinical cohort. Methods: We studied Penn Medicine BioBank participants with available genotypes and clinically obtained coronary CTA reports. A previously published PRS for angiographic CAD burden was calculated using pgsc_calc. CAD-RADS scores and coronary artery calcium (CAC) values were extracted from radiology reports using the large language model Llama 3.1 8B. Associations between PRS and CAD-RADS severity were evaluated using Bayesian cumulative ordinal logit regression, while associations with log-transformed CAC burden were assessed using Bayesian linear regression. Results: Among 630 participants, median age was 59 years (IQR 49 - 68), 53% were female, 62% were genetically similar to a European reference population, and 34% to an African reference population. LLM-extracted CAD-RADS and CAC values demonstrated near-perfect agreement with manual abstraction. Higher PRS was associated with greater coronary atherosclerotic burden on CTA. Each 1-standard deviation (SD) increase in PRS was associated with a 20% higher odds of belonging to a more severe CAD-RADS category (cumulative OR 1.20, 95% credible interval 1.06-1.44). Higher PRS was also associated with greater CAC burden ({beta} 0.38, 95% credible interval 0.15 - 0.61). Conclusions: Polygenic risk for angiographic coronary disease burden is reflected in clinically reported coronary CTA severity measures, including CAD-RADS and CAC. These findings demonstrate that inherited susceptibility to CAD manifests as greater anatomic atherosclerotic burden at the time of clinical presentation and support further investigation of genetic risk integration into imaging-based cardiovascular risk assessment.

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Hierarchical organ aging signatures from routine abdominal CT add incremental disease risk stratification beyond blood biomarkers

Deng, Z.; Wang, Y.; Shi, Y.; Wang, L.; Qureshi, T. A.; Gaddam, S.; Javed, S.; Hsu, Y.-C.; De Righi, D. R.; Azab, L.; Diwan, G.; Yang, J. D.; Xie, Y.; Yuan, C.; Vendrami, C. L.; Rodriguez, A.; Specht, K.; Jeon, C. Y.; Chaudhry, H.; Buxbaum, J.; Pisegna, J. R.; Yaghmai, V.; Goessling, W.; Hernandez-Barco, Y. G.; Miller, F. H.; Tirkes, T.; Espinoza, S.; Musi, N.; Dey, D.; Sung, K. H.; Pandol, S. J.; Li, D.

2026-05-27 radiology and imaging 10.64898/2026.05.19.26353206 medRxiv
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Biological aging is heterogeneous across organ systems, yet whether CT-derived abdominal aging provides prognostic value beyond routine clinical data and whether organ decomposition adds beyond a unified estimate remains untested. We developed and evaluated organ-specific and ensemble biological age models from radiomic features across five abdominal organs in 68,675 CT scans from 32,883 subjects, evaluated on alignment with chronological age of healthy subjects (nested cross validation: MAE=3.68 years, R^2=0.90). In sequential analyses restricted to adults aged 20-60 years which is the stratum of strongest BAG-disease association, ensemble biological age gaps provided incremental prognostic value beyond demographic covariates for all-cause disease and mortality (Delta C-index=0.141, 0.051) and beyond routine blood biomarkers (Delta C-index=0.048), confirming CT-derived aging captures structural information beyond laboratory markers. Organ-specific biological age added incremental prognostic value beyond ensemble selectively for focal diseases: cardiovascular (aorta, Delta C-index=0.091) and hepato-pancreatic (pancreas, Delta C-index=0.096). These findings establish a hierarchical organization of CT-derived biological aging, positioning routine CT as a source that adds prognostic value to existing clinical biomarkers.

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Optical coherence tomography as a biomarker for frontotemporal dementia: a systematic review & meta-analysis

Wang, E.; Kohli, A.; Taha, H. B.

2026-05-27 neurology 10.64898/2026.05.19.26353366 medRxiv
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Background: Frontotemporal dementia (FTD) lacks widely accessible disease-specific biomarkers. Optical coherence tomography (OCT) and OCT angiography (OCTA) may provide non-invasive measures of retinal changes associated with neurodegeneration. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis evaluating retinal biomarkers in FTD compared with Alzheimer disease (AD) and controls. Methods: A systematic search of PubMed and Embase was conducted through April 25, 2026 according to PRISMA guidelines. Studies evaluating OCT/OCTA biomarkers in FTD with comparator groups were included. Inverse weighted random-effects models, publication bias assessments, and meta-regressions were performed. Results: Ten studies involving 139 individuals with FTD, 87 with AD, 29 with mild cognitive impairment, 14 with TDP-43 proteinopathy, 5 with tauopathy, and 255 controls were included in the systematic review; five studies were eligible for meta-analysis. Compared with AD, individuals with FTD demonstrated significantly thinner retinal nerve fiber layer (RNFL) thickness (SMD = -0.61, 95% CI -0.98, -0.24). Compared with controls, individuals with FTD exhibited significantly thinner ganglion cell layer-inner plexiform layer (GCL-IPL) thickness (SMD = -0.55, 95% CI -1.02, -0.08), whereas pooled analyses across multiple retinal biomarkers were non-significant (SMD = -0.19, 95% CI -0.52, 0.14). RNFL thickness correlated negatively with female % in FTD and positively with age in both AD and controls. Conclusions: Individuals with FTD exhibit lower RNFL thickness than AD and lower GCL-IPL thickness than controls, suggesting retinal alterations may reflect neurodegeneration. However, larger longitudinal studies with standardized OCT/OCTA protocols are needed to determine the diagnostic and prognostic utility of retinal biomarkers in FTD

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Vaginal Antisepsis for Major Gynecologic Surgeries Using Chlorhexidine Gluconate versus Povidone Iodine: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Dias, Y.; Gebrekidan, F.; Lowder, J.; Sutcliffe, S.; Yaeger, L.

2026-05-27 obstetrics and gynecology 10.64898/2026.05.26.26353429 medRxiv
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ABSTRACT OBJECTIVE: We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis (SRMA) of post-surgical outcomes, comparing chlorhexidine gluconate (CHG) versus povidone iodine (PI) for vaginal antisepsis of major gynecologic procedures. DATA SOURCES: Ovid Medline, Embase, Scopus, Embase, Cochrane, and Clinicaltrials.gov were searched between 1986 and December 2023, for studies comparing CHG with PI for vaginal antisepsis of major gynecologic operations. STUDY ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA: We included Randomized Controlled Trials (RCTs) and non-RCTs comparing CHG to PI for vaginal antisepsis of major gynecologic operations. The primary outcome was surgical site infections (SSIs) and the secondary outcome was urinary tract infections (UTIs) and vaginal irritation. METHODS: Summary estimates were calculated by fixed effects models when I2 [&le;] 25% and by random effects models when I2 > 25%. Statistical analysis was performed using RevMan 5.4.1. The protocol for this systematic review was registered on PROSPERO (ID CRD42022378101). RESULTS: Nine studies met the inclusion criteria, four of which were randomized controlled trials (RCTs). 9538 patients were included, 4300 (45%) of whom were allocated to CHG and 5238 (55%) to PI. No statistically significant difference in SSI incidence was found for vaginal antisepsis with CHG versus PI in pooled analyses (n= 9538 patients; RR 1.20; 95% CI 0.92-1.57; I2 =0%). In contrast, a significantly higher risk of UTIs was observed for vaginal antisepsis with CHG than with PI (n=6061 patients; RR 1.48 95% CI 1.03-2.14; I2 = 0%). CONCLUSION: In our SRMA, there were no significant differences in SSI risk when either CHG or PI was utilized for antiseptic vaginal preparation. Interestingly, vaginal antisepsis with PI was associated with a lower incidence of post-operative UTIs following major gynecologic surgery. Our findings support current guidelines that form of vaginal antisepsis can be used for SSI prevention. They also suggest that PI may result in fewer postoperative UTIs but further randomized studies are needed to support these findings. Key words: surgical site infection, surgical wound infection, urinary tract infection, urogynecologic surgery, Chlorhexidine, Povidone Iodine, surgical antiseptic,

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An ECG foundation model for generalizable cardiac function prediction across the lifespan

Yang, Y.; Peracchio, L.; Mayourian, J.; Miller, T.; La Cava, W.

2026-05-27 health informatics 10.64898/2026.05.26.26354128 medRxiv
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Background Artificial intelligence-enhanced electrocardiography (AI-ECG) enables scalable, low-cost cardiac dysfunction screening, but existing models are annotation-intensive and predominantly adult-derived, leaving paediatric generalizability uncertain. Paediatric cohorts exhibit highly variable cardiac morphology and function compared to adults, which may be useful for learning generalizable AI-ECG models. Methods We pretrained ECG-Fyler on a predominantly paediatric, all-age cohort at Boston Children's Hospital (1992-2023), annotated with a cardiology-specific coding system (Fyler codes), and evaluated it on assessments from echocardiography (echo) and cardiac magnetic resonance (CMR) studies. We validated on an external adult cohort from Columbia University Irving Medical Center. Performance was benchmarked against several AI-ECG foundation models by AUROC across age groups, lesion types, and limited-data scenarios. Findings The pretraining cohort comprised 782,138 ECGs from 255,271 patients (median age: 10.9 years, IQR: [2.8-16.8]). Internal evaluation included 178,495 ECG-echo pairs (median age: 10.9 [3.7-17.0]) and 8,584 ECG-CMR pairs (median age: 20.7 [15.6-29.6]). External validation included 82,543 ECG-echo pairs from adults (median age: 64.0 [52.0-74.0]). ECG-Fyler improved AUROC across biventricular dysfunction and dilation tasks, with the largest gains in low-data settings. In internal validation, ECG-Fyler detected low left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF [&le;] 40%) from only 100 fine-tuning samples (AUROC: 0.80, 95% CI: [0.78-0.80]), outperforming other models (AUROC < 0.65) and improving with additional fine-tuning (AUROC: 0.94 [0.93-0.94]). Similar improvements were observed for CMR-derived LVEF, RVEF, and ventricular dilation. In external validation on adults, ECG-Fyler exhibited an AUROC of 0.83 (CI: [0.82-0.85]) for LVEF [&le;] 40%. After fine-tuning on less than 10% of external data, LVEF [&le;] 45% performance (AUROC: 0.87 [0.86-0.88]) outperformed a fully trained, site-specific prior model (AUROC: 0.85 [0.84-0.87]). Interpretation Pretraining on richly annotated, paediatric-dominant ECGs yields models that transfer efficiently across institutions and ages, supporting AI-ECG screening and triage when labels or imaging access are limited. Funding National Institutes of Health (R01LM012973); Kostin Innovation Fund, Boston Children's Hospital

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Patient Versus Prediction-Level Evaluation of a Dynamic Clinical Prediction Model of Sepsis

Tuttle, M.; Maas, C. C. H. M.; An, J.; Wessler, B. S.; Harvey, W. F.; Selker, H. P.; van Klaveren, D.; Kent, D. M.

2026-05-27 health systems and quality improvement 10.64898/2026.05.26.26354141 medRxiv
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The Epic Sepsis Model version 2 (ESMv2) is a prediction model embedded into the electronic medical record used to warn clinicians which hospitalized patients are at risk for sepsis. We conducted a retrospective cohort study of 31,951 hospitalizations of 25,760 patients to compare analyses conducted at the commonly used patient-level (where a maximum prediction prior to the onset of sepsis is used to measure performance) vs novel prediction-level (where each prediction is used to measure performance). Sepsis, defined by the Sepsis 3 criteria occurred during 1,049 hospitalizations (3.3%). Patient-level analyses suggested excellent discrimination AUC 0.86; [IQR 0.85, 0.87], whereas prediction-level analyses demonstrated lower performance AUC 0.62; [IQR 0.57, 0.65]. Low estimates of the positive predictive value (14.5% at the patient level vs 4% at the prediction level) imply a high number of false alerts. Common evaluation approaches may overstate the performance of dynamic prediction models and mislead clinical decision-making.

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Morphological feature remodeling of intracranial arteries in the context of inflammation and HIV-associated cognitive impairment

Hoang, N.; Yang, H.; Uddin, M. N.; Zhong, J.; Faiyaz, A.; Singh, M. V.; Boodoo, Z. D.; Sutton, K. R.; Wang, H. Z.; Sahin, B.; Khan, M. W.; Weber, M. T.; Yuan, C.; Chen, L.; Schifitto, G.

2026-05-27 hiv aids 10.64898/2026.05.19.26353071 medRxiv
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Background: Despite the success of combination antiretroviral therapy (cART), vascular comorbidities, including cerebrovascular disease, are more prominent in people living with HIV (PLWH) compared to people without HIV (PWOH). However, quantitative assessments of cerebrovascular morphometry and their associations with cognitive outcomes in the context of HIV are still limited. In this study, we explore this missing link. Methods: Magnetic Resonance Angiography (MRA) data, blood markers, and neurocognitive assessments were collected from 73 PWOH subjects (male: 57, female: 16; age: 53 {+/-} 16) and 99 PLWH subjects (male: 66, female: 30, age: 53 {+/-} 11). Vessel morphometric features were quantified using intraCranial Artery Feature Extraction (iCafe) to investigate associations between vessel morphometry, markers of monocytes, endothelial cell activation, and cognitive performance. Results: HIV status predicted a lower total number of branches ({beta} = -0.224, p = 0.001, d = -0.517) and shorter total distal length ({beta} = -0.173, p = 0.021, d = -0.370) with a moderate effect size. Total branch number was found to be negatively associated with plasma levels of monocyte markers (sCD14: r = -0.167, p = 0.033; sCD163: r = -0.157, p = 0.045) and positively correlated with white matter cerebral blood flow (r = 0.550; p [&le;] 0.05). HIV status was the strongest predictor of overall cognitive performance in ANCOVA model ({beta} = -0.219, p = 0.006, d = -0.453). Conclusions: Our results suggest that cognitive impairment in PLWH is associated with vessel morphology metrics. Monocyte immune activation may contribute to changes in vessel morphology.

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Can Large Language Models Diagnose Primary Immunodeficiency from Patient-Described Symptoms?

Reteig, L. C.; Woloshin, S.; Maglione, P. J.; Farmer, J. R.; Ong, M.-S.

2026-05-27 allergy and immunology 10.64898/2026.05.26.26353818 medRxiv
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Patients with primary immunodeficiency (PID) often face prolonged diagnostic delays and may increasingly turn to large language models (LLMs) to interpret their symptoms during this period. We evaluated whether an LLM could recognize PID from symptom descriptions derived from interviews with 21 PID patients. In a prior study, we showed that GPT-4o identified PID in 96% of cases when prompted with physician-written patient histories (Rider et al., JACI, 2024). Here, when prompted with symptom descriptions in patients' own words, GPT-5 identified PID in only 7 cases (33%), although it more broadly suggested immune system issues in 18 cases (81%). The gap between these findings indicates that LLMs are sensitive to the language and framing of symptom descriptions, performing substantially worse when patients describe their own symptoms in everyday language than when clinicians summarize patient histories in structured medical terms. This study underscores the need to carefully evaluate how LLMs are used in patient-facing applications.

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ERBB4 deficiency promotes atrial myopathy underlying the atrial fibrillation substrate

Yamaguchi, N.; Santucci, J.; Hong, S. J.; Ferrena, A.; Schlamp, F.; Willett, D.; Casdin, C. J.; Park, P. S.; Lin, X.; Xiao, J.; Hall, S.; Barnard, J.; Achter, J.; Kanhert, K.; Lundby, A.; Chung, M. K.; Van Wagoner, D. R.; Park, D. S.

2026-05-27 cardiovascular medicine 10.64898/2026.05.26.26354173 medRxiv
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Background Atrial fibrillation (AF) is a leading cause of stroke, cardiovascular morbidity, and mortality. Atrial myopathy, characterized by progressive metabolic, electrical, and structural changes, creates the arrhythmogenic substrate that drives AF. Defining the key drivers of atrial myopathic processes is essential for targeted therapies that can mitigate AF progression. Here we explore how reduced ERBB4 expression contributes to the development of left atrial myopathy. Methods We analyzed the Cleveland Clinic Biobank to compare left atrial ERBB4 levels in patients grouped by AF diagnosis. To investigate the impact of reduced ERBB4 levels on atrial tissue substrate, we created mouse models of cardiac-specific Erbb4 deficiency using Mlc2a (myosin light chain 2a)-Cre. Comprehensive physiological assessments were performed. Transcriptomic analyses of the left atrium were performed in an Erbb4 haploinsufficient mouse model and compared with human atrial datasets. Molecular validation of key dysregulated pathways was performed. Results We found that left atrial ERBB4 levels are reduced in patients with AF. Adult cardiomyocyte-specific Erbb4 heterozygous (Erbb4fl/+;Mlc2a-Cre) mice exhibited prolonged P-wave duration in the absence of ventricular dysfunction. Left atrial transcriptomic analysis in Erbb4 haploinsufficient mice showed upregulation of pathways related to fibrosis, apoptosis, and coagulation, and downregulation of pathways related to fatty acid metabolism and mitochondrial function, mirroring changes observed in pressure overload mouse models. A cross-species transcriptomic comparison revealed significant overlap between ERBB4-correlated gene expression and functional pathways in adult human atria and mice with Erbb4 haploinsufficiency. Validating the transcriptomic data, protein and functional assays demonstrated increased fibrosis, apoptosis, and oxidative stress in the mutant left atrial tissue. Conclusion Left atrial ERBB4 levels are reduced in AF patients. A mouse model of Erbb4 deficiency and human atrial transcriptomic analyses highlight a role for ERBB4 in supporting normal atrial metabolism while protecting against inflammation, apoptosis, and fibrosis.

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Dentine markers of pre/early postnatal lead exposure links with brain, cognitive, and behavioral outcomes in adolescents

Marshall, A. T.; Kan, E.; Adise, S.; König, M.; McConnell, R.; Martinez, M.; Midya, V.; Arora, M.; Sowell, E. R.

2026-05-27 pediatrics 10.64898/2026.05.26.26354134 medRxiv
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Lead is a toxic metal ubiquitous in our environment. While dramatic reductions in lead sources have paralleled equivalent decreases in lead-poisoning rates, chronic lead exposure remains a critical public health concern. Childhood lead exposure (at its lowest levels) is liked to changes in cognitive development but less is known about lead's effects on children's brain structure, especially as a result of in utero exposure. We measured prenatal and early-postnatal lead exposure in shed deciduous teeth of 448 9- and 10-year-old children (from 20 United States cities) and linked those lead levels to childhood brain structure, cognition/behavior, and neighborhood- and family-level socioeconomic characteristics. Here we show negative associations between tooth-lead levels and the thickness of the brain's cortex, particularly in regions linked to language processing. With increasing tooth-lead levels, children of lower-income (versus higher-income) families showed steeper declines in receptive vocabulary. Caregiver-reported behavioral problems exhibited similar associations. With in utero exposure linked to adverse neurodevelopmental outcomes (well before lead exposure and its risks are evaluated by healthcare professionals), prenatal screening of maternal lead levels/exposure, coupled with recommended strategies to reduce its placental transmission, may help reduce lead's effects on future generations.

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Auditable cross-instrument detection of unusual multivariate psychiatric response configurations using a semantically aligned covariance subspace

Periwal, V.

2026-05-27 psychiatry and clinical psychology 10.64898/2026.05.22.26353902 medRxiv
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Background: Conventional psychiatric screening instruments summarize symptoms within individual scales and prioritize cases with high single-instrument additive score severity. This design treats items as independent within instruments and ignores cross-instrument covariance structure, making it insensitive to respondents whose responses are distributed across multiple domains in unusual combinations that remain below threshold on every individual scale. Methods: We analyzed two cohorts spanning older and younger adults. Item prompts from depression, stress, anxiety, and sleep instruments were embedded into a shared semantic space using a pretrained sentence encoder. Principal component analysis of the item-prompt embeddings alone---with no use of respondent data at this stage---was used to construct a low-dimensional subspace retaining 80\% of variance in the item embedding matrix. Normalized participant responses were then projected into this subspace, with Jaccard-based stability analysis used as a check on dimensional robustness. Multivariate deviation from the cohort norm was quantified with Mahalanobis distance using Ledoit-Wolf covariance regularization. Candidate outliers were defined by the empirical 95th percentile of the cohort-specific distance distribution. To isolate response configurations not already captured by conventional single-instrument extreme-value logic, we excluded all outlier respondents who had endorsed any individual item at the maximum value of its Likert scale on any instrument. For the remaining outliers, anomalous components were backtracked to their original item loadings for interpretation. Results: In the older-adult Health and Retirement Study (HRS) cohort, principal component analysis of 27 item-prompt embeddings showed that a 10-dimensional subspace provided a stable representation of cross-instrument semantic structure. In the younger-adult Xinxiang cohort the corresponding stable solution was 16-dimensional. In each cohort, seven respondents remained as multivariate outliers despite falling below every single-instrument extreme-value threshold. These cases were not characterized by uniformly severe symptom scores but by unusual cross-domain response configurations that became visible only in the shared semantic covariance subspace. The response structure of the retained configurations differed across cohorts: older-adult cases more often involved weak endorsement of mood-labeled items alongside nonzero body- and sleep-related responses, whereas younger-adult cases more often involved incomplete response configurations spanning mood, sleep, stress, and self-harm-related items. Conclusions: A semantically aligned, auditable covariance subspace provides a practical tool for flagging unusual multivariate response configurations that single-instrument additive screening may not flag. The method is interpretable at the level of original item contributions. It should be understood as a hypothesis-generating screen for unusual response configurations requiring further clinical assessment, not as a diagnostic instrument. Outcome validity remains to be established by prospective study.

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Data Assimilation Substitutes for Biological Complexity in Hybrid Influenza Forecasting Models

Alleman, T. W.; Van Wesemael, T.; Shanker, N.; Mietchen, M. S.; Loo, S.; Ajagbe, S. O.; Baetens, J. M.; Lemaitre, J.; Hill, A. L.; Truelove, S. A.; Bento, A. I.

2026-05-27 public and global health 10.64898/2026.05.19.26353597 medRxiv
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Hybrid mechanistic-statistical models offer interpretability and adaptability for short-term seasonal epidemic forecasting, but it remains unclear whether their accuracy depends more on increased biological complexity or on the assimilation of richer data. Using eight retrospective influenza seasons in North Carolina, we evaluate whether training on historical data and assimilating auxiliary emergency department (ED) visit data improves four-week-ahead hospital admission forecasts more than adding biological complexity (multi-subtype structure and cross-season immunity). Hierarchical Bayesian training on historical data improves accuracy by 22.4 % (95 % CI: 16.4-28.1 %), and inclusion of ED visit data yields a further 5.3 % (95 % CI: 3.0-7.6 %) improvement, whereas added biological complexity produces diminishing or null gains. We further observe a substitution effect in which ED visit data partially compensates for omitted biological structure. We deployed a simplified model variant in the 2025-2026 CDC FluSight Challenge and ranked among the top ensemble performers, supporting the robustness of Bayesian hierarchical training in real time. Together, these findings indicate that short-term forecast accuracy is driven more by historical learning and assimilating auxiliary signals than by biological fidelity, with implications for how forecasting systems should balance mechanistic complexity.

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AI Adoption for NCDs in Kenya: A Qualitative Study

Rayo, J.; Cushny, W.; Mwangi, M.; Wanyee, S.; Linguraru, M. G.; Nyaga, N.; Koros, H.; Bosire, M.; Obuya, M.; Ngaruiya, C.

2026-05-27 public and global health 10.64898/2026.05.26.26354008 medRxiv
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Background: Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) represent a critical public health challenge in Kenya, responsible for over 50% of inpatient admissions and 40% of deaths. While digital health tools and artificial intelligence offer promising ways to improve prevention, diagnosis, and management, little is known about how these tools are perceived and used in practice. There is limited research exploring the views and lived experiences of young people in Kenya, who are a strategic priority for NCD prevention because behavioral risk factors are established in this window, and for Community Health Providers (CHPs) who provide health services within the community. This study aims to address this gap by examining the perspectives of the burden of non-communicable diseases and the potential role of digital health technologies, including artificial intelligence, for preventing and managing these conditions in these specific populations. Methods: A qualitative research design using focus group discussions (FGDs) was employed in Nairobi (urban) and Busia (rural) counties between March and July 2024. Eight FGDs were conducted with 60 participants purposively sampled from three stakeholder groups: community health promoters (CHPs), healthcare workers (HCWs), and youth aged 18-35 years. A semi-structured guide, co-developed with a Community Advisory Board, explored beliefs about NCDs, health-seeking behaviors, lifestyle practices, and attitudes toward digital health and AI. Audio recordings were transcribed verbatim, translated where necessary, and analyzed thematically using grounded theory principles on NVivo software (v12). Results: Six consolidated themes emerged: (1) understanding of NCDs and perceived risk; (2) barriers to NCD prevention and care; (3) the role of CHPs; (4) adoption of AI tools for NCD management; (5) trust, ethics and access concerns; and (6) community-driven recommendations for AI integration. Significant barriers including stigma, economic constraints, and barriers to care were documented alongside enthusiasm for AI tools among youth and CHPs in both urban and rural areas. Conclusion: This study shows that AI tools are being used for NCD prevention and management through spontaneous community adoption. However, it emphasizes the need for culturally relevant, equitable, and community-driven solutions. Effective scaling requires the identification and bridging of digital literacy gaps, the establishment of affordable infrastructure, the protection of data privacy, and the integration of artificial intelligence tools into existing community health frameworks. This process should involve the collaboration of trusted intermediaries, such as CHPs and community leaders, to ensure successful outcomes. Future initiatives should prioritize participatory design, policy frameworks for ethical governance, and targeted capacity building to enhance acceptance and sustainability of digital health innovations in low- and middle-income country settings.